China’s Future: Opportunities and Risks Ahead

November 14, 2025

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Jay Kramer, Director of Public Affairs at Citadel, led a discussion with Rush Doshi, Senior Fellow for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and Assistant Professor at Georgetown University, and Liza Tobin, Managing Director at Garner Global and Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation. The panel examined China’s long-term strategy, economic resilience, and evolving relationship with the United States amid intensifying technological and geopolitical competition.

Key Takeaways

Strategic Continuity: China’s pursuit of “national rejuvenation” reflects a long-standing goal to restore wealth and power through military strength, economic independence, and leadership in global governance.
Economic Coercion as Statecraft: Beijing integrates state, corporate, and intelligence resources to exert influence across markets and supply chains, using scale and control to advance political objectives.
Taiwan and the Risk Spectrum: While a large-scale invasion is unlikely, gray-zone tactics such as blockades, cyberattacks, or limited territorial actions pose growing risks to stability and global supply chains.
Selective Separation: The U.S. and China are reducing dependencies in critical sectors like semiconductors and minerals while maintaining interdependence elsewhere, reflecting a strategy of de-risking rather than full decoupling.
Technology Rivalry: Artificial intelligence and advanced computing will define the next phase of competition. The U.S. leads in chip design and compute power, while China accelerates efforts toward self-reliance and domestic innovation.

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