Shifting Tides: The Future of International Alliances

Angel Ubide, Managing Director and Head of Economic Research at Citadel, moderated a discussion with Niall Ferguson, Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, and Admiral James Stavridis, Vice Chairman of The Carlyle Group and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander. The panel examined the evolving geopolitical and economic order, U.S. strategy under renewed nationalism and the implications for global markets.

Key Takeaways

• Debt, Defense and Dollar Strains: Developed economies face growing fiscal constraints, with rising interest costs crowding out defense spending and contributing to early signs of dollar depreciation.
• Tariffs and a Reoriented U.S. Strategy: Tariffs have become economic and geopolitical tools, signaling a U.S. pivot toward prioritizing the Western Hemisphere, border control and skepticism of multilateral institutions.
• China’s Calculus: Beijing views current dynamics as an opportunity to consolidate power while the U.S. seeks détente through transactional diplomacy. The near-term risk lies in gray-zone moves over Taiwan rather than a full invasion.
• Middle East–Iran Dynamics: Potential progress on a Gaza ceasefire could strengthen economic integration between the Gulf and Israel while sidelining Iran. In the longer  term, regime change or nuclear concessions could redefine regional stability.
• Europe’s Moment of Decision: The war in Ukraine has exposed Europe’s dependence on U.S. deterrence. Accelerated defense investment, particularly in drones and AI, will determine whether Europe can deter further Russian aggression and sustain unity.

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